Woodstock CT Café

from Con

In the midst of all this gloom, there is good news: the next few years will surprise us all because the Economy will do what it has done like clockwork (and often for inexplicable reasons) BOUNCE BACK, just like it has time and again after an extended period of negative indicators, negative facts, decline and massive economic meltdown.

History shows that the American Economy will behave like a Pendulum and soon swing the other way almost ‘of it’s own volition’ – NOT because of micro or macro economics or the action or inaction of Congress, the White House or the Fed, but simply because that’s what it does and the American People drive this dynamic, not the talking heads. Everyone is focused on the near term, rightfully so, but this Pendulum Swing really has occurred throughout History.

I realize it’s a Farmers Almanac view of economics (’7 lean years followed by 7 fat years’), but it really does seem to occur almost organically and like clockwork in America’s economy after going through what we are going through. Without History showing this pattern (you really have to step back to see it) I would never believe in it.

A good example of what I’m talking about is what happened during the ‘Irrational Exuberance’ of the ’90s. The fact that it was Irrational is actually part of my point – the American People somehow find a foothold and build from there, so no traditional economic theory can explain why it will happen again, but I’d put money on it (of course, in a very real sense we have ALL put money on it).

I just wanted to throw this out there in the midst of so much worry and concern, all perfectly warranted. History doesn’t lie and often in spite of all manner of reasons why it shouldn’t, the American Economy makes a grand recovery as we enter ’7 Fat Years’.

from Newcomer

Yes, two years ago we were in free fall (to Kevin). Today, we are days aways from probably having our nation’s credit rating down-graded. The reports I’ve heard lately say that if that happens, it will almost certainly lead to more inflation. We already are experiencing inflation in cost of goods. I’m paying more for groceries today than I did two years ago. We are still enjoying low interest rates from lenders and that would be outstanding to take advantage of, if only I could find someone to lend. The lenders are being stingy, even when you have outstanding credit, which somehow I still do – thank God. So I submit to you that we are again on the verge of free-fall, albeit of a different nature. What may happen to our economy in the coming weeks if current predictions come to pass, is not something that I would define as stable.

ARRA may have saved a few jobs and even created a few, but my understanding is that it was not nearly as effective as even President Obama had hoped and presumed it would have been. I recall him saying not too long ago that those “shovel ready jobs” weren’t as shovel ready as he thought. I’ll give him credit for at least admitting it.

In the kind of severe recession we faced, lay-offs were happening on a massive scale but two years after ARRA, I’m still hearing crazy numbers like 300,000 new unemployment/jobless claims per week.

What about all of the $$ spent on extending unemployment benefits? Isn’t it possible that more people could have been helped and for a longer period of time if the government set up an unemployment program where recipients were required to earn something, even if they could only find work per diem for one day a week and then received benefits to make up the difference? What about a program like Clinton’s Americorp where people volunteer “X” amount of hours serving on their community projects and receive some sort of pro-rated compensation or so many dollars worth of credit toward higher education? Programs like these would have kept people involved, networking in some capacity, and productive and it would have stretched the government’s dollars further and longer. Maybe by that time, a few more projects would have been shovel-ready. At the very least, the way the funds were distributed and used should have been thought out and mandated more efficiently. But government is not known for being an efficient job creator and in this case, it shows.

If cuts are made with care and proper planning, they shouldn’t be damaging. Plus, neither the House nor the Senate is talking about overhauling and simplifying the tax code as part of these debt ceiling talks. They can’t do that because each party is beholden to their own special interests, be they big multi-national corporations, or the unions. No one wants to take on their “friends”. Big companies and small businesses aren’t hiring because they don’t trust this economy, nor this Congress, nor this President. And a complicated tax code doesn’t help. All of these things can be remedied, even if only temporarily, but it’s never going to happen. Read the rest of this entry »

from Kevin

To think we are in worse shape than we were two years ago I’m not sure reflects reality well (addressing Newcomer). Two years ago we were in free fall and today we are at least stabilized in no small part due to TARP and ARRA. I can tell you that this community, along with communities across the country, directly benefited from those programs and there would have been layoffs if they were not in place. Layoffs would have continued the downward spiral as it would have added to the pool of people who now can’t pay their bills, stop buying things and need public assistance as well. A lot of people seem to think that the government can snap its fingers and everything will be OK again. That’s not the reality of what governments can do.

When we were entering the recession a lot of depression era economics experts talked about the government and stimulus programs. One of the largest mistakes that happened then was that everyone started getting freaked out about the debt the depression and stimulus programs were causing and started pulling back into austerity programs. Of course this led to laying off government workers which began the downward spiral again. That’s when the depression started getting really bad. Unfortunately we’ve forgotten all that and are heading down the same path.

So is the economy getting any better? No of course not and the government is no longer doing anything to improve it. Even worse, the government through austerity programs is actively working to restart the downward spiral. Now I ask you, why do you think this is occurring?

Here’s what I’m unhappy with President Obama about. He is so concerned with bringing the other side to the table that again and again he capitulates so much as to not create a balanced approach. The Republicans are currently in a great place and can’t lose. They get their way and get to blame the bad results on the President. For example, in order to get some grudging Republican votes, the stimulus was too small and a third of that, tax cuts that ended up stimulating nothing and making the debt higher. When that didn’t do enough to stimulate the economy and caused deeper debt the Republicans get to blame him for it. Healthcare reform ended with a Republican plan, an individual mandate to try and get a few of them on board. Of course, now that’s the part everyone hates and the Republicans get to tar President Obama for it and claim they had nothing to do with it. Now we have the worst and most damaging thing of all about to happen. All attempts at government recovery have stopped and the Tea Party is about to set the agenda. President Obama is once again going over and talking big cuts with them to compromise instead of talking about ways to recover. Even if the debt ceiling is increased, but it is tied to massive cuts, we are in deep kimchi. When the layoffs that that will cause hit the economy we can kiss this fragile recovery good bye. The great news for Republicans is they will be able to once again point their fingers at President Obama as the cause. The Republicans win, likely gain power and who loses? Oh yes, the American people.

There is one way from a policy perspective to fix our financial situation and that is to move our GDP in a positive trajectory. The unemployment problem recedes, the debt problem corrects itself, etc. To be honest the 14th amendment solution might be the best outcome of this mess. At least that won’t cause damaging cuts. The best outcome would have been for congress to raise the debt limit and start focusing on jobs but that isn’t going to happen. Instead they are focused on not raising the debt limit and creating more layoffs which will surely put us back into a recession. A sad, sad, situation.

Thanks,

Kevin

I haven’t been paying much attention to visitation activity at the Café lately because we now have a very cordial group of visitors and little controversy to stir things up. But this morning out of curiousity I decided to take a look at where our visitors are coming from in Connecticut, Massachussetts, and Rhode Island. In the last three days, by far, most Cafe visitors access the Internet from a Woodstock ISP hub, but Storrs is a close second followed by Willington, Willimantic, and Mansfield Center. Many of these are probably Woodstockians in Woodstock. I’m not sure how this works because Becki and I, in North Woodstock, access the Internet from a Storrs hub multiple times every day. And other Woodstockians access the Internet from other hubs in surrounding towns.

The two figures below draw a picture of where more Café visitors are accessing the Internet, not necessarily their town location. These figures do not include the many out-of-state visitors and international visitors, some of which are Woodstockians on the road. And we welcome our reading visitor from Moscow, also.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sincerbeaux’s visit the Café from their new home in Danville CA (due east over the hills from Oakland CA) where they are moving in the coming week. So below I have a map of where they are going and a picture of the downtown of Danville which looks like a typical downtown of many CA towns. We wish them the best in California and I would not be surprised to see them back in Woodstock on occasion.
Click to enlarge.
And also don’t forget Bob Blair (transfer station) who headed to the mid-west this week to get back to his roots near St. Paul MN. We wish him the best and I’m sure he will also be visiting the Cafe on ocassion.

from Kevin

I try and stay out of the national political debates here but this is one where it has gotten to the point nationally where I’m going to comment. Sure there is blame for both sides but I also feel that one group is clearly more to blame than the others. I think we can narrow down the focus from the Republicans to the tea party itself.

I think if it were just a Republican house majority without the Tea Party, John Boehner would have led them to meaningful compromise and this would have been solved. With the Tea Party in place they won’t allow that to happen. This is our own fault as a nation. We voted in a large block of extremist ideologues. Extremist ideologues do not compromise in any meaningful way. Is it any wonder we are where we are today?

I suppose I could blame John Boehner for not taking the more moderate Republicans and finding an alliance with the Democratic majority. But that would have hurt their chances for reelection and neither political party seems willing to do things that do that. Even the stated goal of the Republicans is to oust the president and regain power, not govern to the best of their ability. There seem to be very few people in Washington who take their duty to the country more seriously than their ability to be reelected and maintain power.

I will say that there is at least one notable exception to this I’ve seen and He’s paid politically for it. That is President Obama. Time and time again he has shown that he is willing to buck his party to do what needs to be done for the country, reelection be damned. I’ve heard for years that this is the type of person we want. We want a centrist who cares more for the country than their reelection. Now that we finally have one, we go into knee jerk reaction mode and elect in a group of extremist ideologues and blame him for the result. We say we want elected officials who are centrists and put the country in front of their political careers but in action it appears that there is a rather large segment of us who don’t.

For the people in Washington this crisis is being caused by the Tea Party but we are all to blame for allowing them to be there to cause this in the first place. Way to go, America.

Thanks, Kevin

Dear Friends

As I am writing this note, Congress is about to vote on a measure that we know will damage the credit rating of the American economy. In the face of loud warnings from economists of every stripe, Republican House Speaker John Boehner is moving ahead with a series of short term extensions of our debt limit, with politically loaded conditions, that will downgrade the value of America’s bond ratings. What a stunning act of self-inflicted damage to our nation.

On August 2nd, our country risks running out of money. If we do not raise the debt limit, we will be unable to pay for critical commitments: Social Security checks, Medicare payments, checks to our soldiers, and interest on bonds the United States already sold. Holding the debt limit hostage, jeopardizing our AAA credit rating, and further exacerbating our nation’s debt is not the answer to address our fiscal challenges.

The dangers of default are real. Not only will a default slow our economy, but it will make mortgage and car loans more expensive. Timothy Geithner, Secretary of the Treasury, wrote to John Boehner that a default “would have a catastrophic economic impact that would be felt by every American” and would create a financial crisis “potentially more severe” then the most recent crisis. The only ones in denial about this threat are Congressional Republicans, who continue to stand in the way of any balanced and bipartisan compromise.

John Boehner stood before the American people the other night claiming that his plan was the solution that we all needed. Yet, this very same plan would not meet the threshold of the rating agencies to avoid a downgrade of the nation’s debt – an outcome that, according to JP Morgan, could cost our nation $100 billion in new debt. In contrast, Sen. Reid’s plan would preserve our country’s AAA rating by providing long term certainty. We need to pass a balanced, sensible debt ceiling solution and we need to pass it immediately.

In the midst of this political storm, I have received a deluge of call, emails and visits from eastern Connecticut constituents who support a long term balanced plan that protects our economy and preserves the pillars of health care and retirement security – Medicare and Social Security.

The consequences of elections could never be clearer than they are at this moment. The radical GOP House Majority has threatened to drag our economy to the brink of downgrade and default to score political points. Now is the time to do what is right for our country, and I will fight back against those seeking economic disaster for partisan political gain.

Will President Obama be forced to invoke Section 4 of the 14th amendment to avoid US default if the House and Senate do not approve each other’s debt reduction and debt limit bill? The trouble here is that there will still be no debt reduction, or tax hike for those making over $250,000 a year, and who knows what the Supreme Court will say. If the Supreme Court over-rules the use of this option, will the US be in instant default?

Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned…

From the NYTimes:

The provision in question, Section 4 of the amendment, was meant to ensure the payment of Union debts after the Civil War and to disavow Confederate ones. But it was written in broader terms.

“The Supreme Court has said in passing that those words have outlived the historical moment that gave rise to them…

…In recent weeks, law professors have been trying to puzzle out the meaning and relevance of the provision. Some have joined Mr. Clinton in saying it allows Mr. Obama to ignore the debt ceiling. Others say it applies only to Congress and only to outright default on existing debts. Still others say the president may do what he wants in an emergency, with or without the authority of the 14th Amendment.”

from John

This is from a dinner party Becki and I held in September 2002. Found this photo while cleaning out Mariah’s room. We had glassed in our front porch and started holding dinner parties on the porch. Becki is sitting at the dinner table next to Danielle Frate (my neice and 2005 grad from the Academy), and Ernie Wetzel. My daughter Christina is in the portrait behind Becki. Joining us was Becki’s father Vern, mother Myrn, and sister Barbara, my parents, my sister Phoebe, Martha Wetzel, and our daughter Mariah and Ernie’s daughter Katie.

Becki was Ernie’s campaign manager in his two successful runs for First Selectman in the falls of 1999 and 2001. Ernie defeated nasty Ed Neuman (RTC) in 1999 and then Delpha Very in 2001. Becki and Martha worked tirelessly to help Ernie get elected by a little more than 60 votes in 1999. They also worked tirelessly together to organize the annual spring trip to Washington for 8th graders. There was a last minute flurry of campaigning when they spread the word that the Norwich Bull had endorsed Ernie over Ed Neuman in 1999. Becki and I were Ernie’s campaign treasurer. He ran as an independant although he was endorsed by Gobin’s DTC in the first go-round. Perhaps Ernie’s most important contribution was the controversial move giving the firehouses a line item in the Town Budget. This was done to prevent a fire tax on the town. It also helped Ernie to get re-elected in 2001 with a little over 30 votes. He also initiated the process of installing the cell tower on the highway department property.

During those years up through Ernie’s second term (2003) Jay Liverois started the practice of having an Ides party to celebrate the Ides of March. During the first party, we all imbibed a little and someone said that we should celebrate the Ides of every month. I can remember having three Ides parties at our house, one or two at Jay’s, and at least one at Ernie’s. Jack Mona and John Winstanley also hosted an Ides party. Jack had accused us of serving rot-gut wine causing John to take a trip to the emergency room the next day.

Ernie decided not to run for a third election in 2003 but, instead, agreed to run for Selectman behind Jay Livernois for First Selectman on an Independent ticket backed by Preston Shultz. This ended in resounding defeat and the election of Delpha Very (RTC) as First Selectman. Ernie, because of his charisma, may have been elected, but not Jay. Melissa Weinand was appointed to take… [Correction: Melissa took Neuman's place after he was defeated by Ernie in around 2000].

Ernie, who had been elected to the Board of Education in 1997, joined the Board of Trustees of the Academy around 2004 or 2005 and used that position as a platform to vehemently attack the spending of the Woodstock Board of Education in concert with Jay (also a Trustee) and Preston Shultz. The Café began in October 2005 to counter these attacks with anonymous Admins and recorded the continuing strife in Woodstock from that time on (see the archives). Becki out’ed herself in January 2007 as the Café Admin and I was quoted at saying that she made me do it .

In the first half of the decade Ernie often warned that the housing market was going to implode. He and Martha took advantage of the inflated housing market to sell their house to the Valentines . He was right, and we entered the Great Recession.

Correct me if I have anything wrong here. John

from Rich Dempsey

This Saturday, July 23rd, Fire Station 77 at 1256 Route 171 in West Woodstock will be hosting it’s annual open house from noon until 4PM.

Come and enjoy food, games, prizes, “dunk the Chief”, tours and an auto extrication demonstration.

Check our website (www.Bungay.com) and consider joining, We are “neighbors helping neighbors”.

 See the full analysis at JenRan Realty.com. You have to register to read Jennifer Esposito’s monthly news letter which contains a monthly Northeastern CT housing market analysis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Region 19 is E.O. Smith serving Ashford and Mansfield. Willington students go to Tolland.

Two HS that are in the top 2-300 in the country: Avon and Wilton.

1. Left to right:Tabasco, Tricycle (our 3 legged stray), Muffin, one-eyed Munchie (mooning the camera), and Lilly (mother of Muffin and Munchie with Tabasco).
2. Left to right: Lilly; Munchie; Muffin; Tricycle with Tabasco on the chair. Red arrows identify dumpware (stuff from the shed), green arrow identifies an Italian platter (also dumpware), and blue arrow in the window identifies a YOU MORON cup.
3. Lilly after dinner.
4. A satisfied Muffin outside the kitchen.
Click to enlarge

from Leslie J. Sweetnam

The next stage includes “housing for visiting teams.” Now we’re talking real money, heating, baths, not warehouse space. Aren’t there enough teams to play within an hour’s drive? Whatever happened to “The boosters will pay for football?”

There is an agreement not to install the kind of massive outdoor lighting that will make South Woodstock, the Hill and East look like downtown Putnam when their lights are on. But this can be changed at a town meeting, when all those families whose dads believe that sports made them the men, they are today bringing out their minions to vote on night lights.

Keep watch on this growing calamity.