In the midst of all this gloom, there is good news: the next few years will surprise us all because the Economy will do what it has done like clockwork (and often for inexplicable reasons) BOUNCE BACK, just like it has time and again after an extended period of negative indicators, negative facts, decline and massive economic meltdown.
History shows that the American Economy will behave like a Pendulum and soon swing the other way almost ‘of it’s own volition’ – NOT because of micro or macro economics or the action or inaction of Congress, the White House or the Fed, but simply because that’s what it does and the American People drive this dynamic, not the talking heads. Everyone is focused on the near term, rightfully so, but this Pendulum Swing really has occurred throughout History.
I realize it’s a Farmers Almanac view of economics (’7 lean years followed by 7 fat years’), but it really does seem to occur almost organically and like clockwork in America’s economy after going through what we are going through. Without History showing this pattern (you really have to step back to see it) I would never believe in it.
A good example of what I’m talking about is what happened during the ‘Irrational Exuberance’ of the ’90s. The fact that it was Irrational is actually part of my point – the American People somehow find a foothold and build from there, so no traditional economic theory can explain why it will happen again, but I’d put money on it (of course, in a very real sense we have ALL put money on it).
I just wanted to throw this out there in the midst of so much worry and concern, all perfectly warranted. History doesn’t lie and often in spite of all manner of reasons why it shouldn’t, the American Economy makes a grand recovery as we enter ’7 Fat Years’.